Unintended Consequences of a NAFTA Breakup – Potential Implications for Fruit, Vegetable, and Tree Nut Trade in North America

If a NAFTA breakup occurs, we expect that Mexican peso and Canadian dollar depreciation will more than compensate for the horticultural tariffs that the U.S. would impose under WTO rules. In such a scenario, we expect to see an increased U.S. import flow of fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts, and a lower U.S. export flow of these products to Canada...

If a NAFTA breakup occurs, we expect that Mexican peso and Canadian dollar depreciation will more than compensate for the horticultural tariffs that the U.S. would impose under WTO rules. In such a scenario, we expect to see an increased U.S. import flow of fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts, and a lower U.S. export flow of these products to Canada and Mexico.

picture of fruit
Source: research.rabobank.com